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Economics at About.Com -- Your Portal to the World of Economicsvar ziRfw=0;function zIpSS(u){zpu(0,u,280,375,"ssWin")}function zIlb(l,t,f){var u=new Array([["1/XJ/W9","1/XJ/WP"],["1/XK/WB","1/XK/WQ"],["18/15m","1/XL/WR"]],[["18/15o","18/1Pp"]],[["1/XJ/WA","1/XJ/WP"],["1/XK/WC","1/XK/WQ"],["18/15m","1/XL/WR"],["18/15o","18/1Pp"]]);var p=l.parentNode.parentNode.parentNode.parentNode.id=="oC"?0:1;var clk;if(arguments.length==3){if(t==1){f=0}if(t==2&&!zIos(l.href)){f=3}clk=u[t][f][p]}else{var c=l.parentNode.parentNode.className;var t=c=="obE"?0:(c=="obS"?1:(c=="obO"?2:-1));var f=t==0?2:(t==1?0:(t==2&&zIos(l.href)?2:(t==2&&!zIos(l.href)?3:-1)));clk=u[t][f][p]}if(!clk)clk="18/15p";zT(l,clk)}function zIos(u){var r=(u.indexOf("&zu=")>0&&(u.substr(u.indexOf("&zu=")).indexOf("about.com")>0)||u.indexOf("http://")0)?false:true;return r}zOBT=" Ads"
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z930=zpreC(930,48);if(thin){z930=0};z160=zpreC(160,600);z336=zpreC(336,280);z728=zpreC(728,90);z155=zpreC(336,155);zItw=160;if(thin)gEI('abw').className='thin';Search Economicsvar h1=document.getElementsByTagName("h1")[0];if(h1.getElementsByTagName("a")[0].firstChild.nodeValue.length>28)h1.className="long";HomeEducationEconomicsif(z930==0 && z728>0){adunit('','',uy,ch,gs,728,90,'1','lb',1)} Emailw(x2+zWl+'?p=1" zT="18/1[N" rel="nofollow">Print')EconomicsBasicsEconomic IndicatorsEconomic Issuesif(z930>0){adunit('','',uy,ch,gs,930,48,'1','s',1)}Must ReadsEconomics GlossaryWhat is a Recession?Recession, Depression?What is Inflation?Free Economics Texts  Guide since 2002 Mike MoffattEconomics Guide Sign up for my NewsletterMy Bio My BlogMy ForumBrowse TopicHelp For Econ StudentsMacro, Micro, Other FieldsEconomics GlossarySports EconomicsInterest RatesExchange RatesMoney & Monetary PolicyEcon Term Paper HelpInflation and DeflationFinance & InvestingTaxes, Policy, & PoliticsEconomic IndicatorsGlobalization & TradeEconomists - Info and BiosIssues In The NewsWe'll Never Run Out of Oil Doomsday Scenarios are FlawedAs long as I can remember, I've been told that we will soon run out of oil...Read moreInflation ResourcesWhat is Inflation?Purchasing Power Parity and InflationCost-Push Inflation vs. Demand-Pull Inflationzob();Why Do We Use the Unemployment Rate?Is the unemployment rate really the best measure of the health of the labor market?Read moreBailouts and the Financial CrisisWould 0% Unemployment Be Good?What is Unemployment?What Are Economic Indicators?Mike's Economics BlogAdd to: iGoogleMy Yahoo!RSSWe Are Officially In a RecessionMonday December 1, 2008That is, if you give the official word to the NBER:
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity...
The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in 2008 met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph of this document. All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion. Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months...
The committee identified December 2007 as the peak month, after determining that the subsequent decline in economic activity was large enough to qualify as a recession.
By the standard definition of a recession (two consecutively quarters of negative GDP growth) the Untied States is not officially in one. But the NBER definition is probably more useful as it considers a larger number of factors.
Comments (0)PermalinkWould a War Improve the Economy?Sunday November 30, 2008In Are Wars Good for the Economy?:
One of the more enduring myths in Western society is that wars are somehow good for the economy. Many people see a great deal of evidence to support this myth, after all World War II came directly after the Great Depression. This faulty belief stems from a misunderstanding of the economic way of thinking.
But not everyone shares this view. Reader D.A. gives his view in - Might War Be Good for the Economy.
I would love to get your view - please leave a comment!Comments (4)PermalinkHistory - We're Doomed Because We're Repeating It (Part II)Saturday November 29, 2008I must not be expressing myself as clearly as I would like to. I was trying to get three points across in History - We're Doomed Because We're Repeating It. Specifically:
Perceptions can deviate from reality for periods of time.
Herd behavior and emotional reactions can cause people to overestimate how good things are during good times (irrational exuberance) and overestimate how bad things are during bad times (irrational discouragement).
Due to people changing their actions based on their perceptions (point 2), self-fulfilling prophecies can occur which cause the economy from getting out of whack (either too low or too high) with the fundamentals for periods of time (point 1).
Which makes the following comment left by a reader so puzzling, as disagrees with my thesis by... agreeing with it?
Your references to Dow 36000 and the real estate bubble support the contention that fantasy NEVER lasts and in fact (my point 1), when it exists it indicates that disaster waits around the corner. Sayng the economy isn’t that bad when it obviously is in trouble to even the casual observer does not prevent it from being bad. It just means reality isn’t being faced. This is always a recipe for disaster.
In case you haven’t noticed one program after another that has been iniciated by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury that was supposed to solve the credit crisis has failed - usually within weeks. And you claim that things may not be that bad with the economy? My feeling is the public isn’t buying this B*** S*** anymore (my point 2) and I suggest you stop shoveling it if you wish to maintain any credibility.
At any rate - I never said the situation was not bad right now. My claim is that it's not as the hysterical would have you believe, but that hysteria has really consequences. Justin Fox describes the effect of these sulf-fulfilling prophecies:
When one is not confident about the answers to such questions, the natural tendency is to hold off on making decisions, especially decisions that involve any kind of long-term commitment. When lots of people postpone decisions, economic activity slumps. Uncertainty is a cause of recessions. And there's so much uncertainty now that this recession could really be doozy.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Comments (0)PermalinkKeynes? Really?Saturday November 29, 2008Greg Mankiw asserts:
IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, there is little doubt that the economist would be John Maynard Keynes.
If I had to make a top 5 list of economists I would turn to, I am not sure Keynes would be on it. Milton Friedman and Joseph Schumpeter would likely be one-two on my list. (And I'm already waiting for the inevitable comment that Hayek should be number one). Given all we have learned about the economy since Keynes's time, I am not sure I could pick him over a current economist such as Larry Summers or Austan Goolsbee. Or Greg Mankiw, for that matter.
I hope someone runs a poll "IF you were going to turn to only one economist to understand the problems facing the economy, who would it be?" I'd love to see who the profession would pick.
Comments (10)PermalinkSee More Blog EntrieszSB(2,5);Free Economics Newsletter!Sign Upif(z336>0){w(''+ap[0]+at[4]+as[0]);adunit('','','about.com',ch,gs,336,280,'1','bb',3);w('')}if(z155>0){w(''+ap[0]+at[4]+as[0]);adunit('','','about.com',ch,gs,336,155,'1','ps',4);w('')} Discuss Recent Comments Would a War Improve the Economy? Keynes? Really? Will the U.S. Go Into Depression in 2009? Community Forum w('New posts to the Economics forums:Economics Social NetworkFairTaxCongruent financial measure??') if(zp[7].d){Dsp(zp[7],'ip')}if(zp[4].d){Dsp(zp[4],'ip')}if(zp[11].d){Dsp(zp[11],'ip')}zSB(3,3)Explore EconomicsMust ReadsEconomics GlossaryWhat is a Recession?Recession, Depression?What is Inflation?Free Economics TextsMost PopularRecessions vs. DepressionsPrice Elasticity of DemandNominal vs. Real VariablesLegalize MarijuanaWhat Was The Gold Standard?SearchBy CategoryHelp For Econ StudentsMacro, Micro, Other FieldsEconomics GlossarySports EconomicsInterest RatesExchange RatesMoney & Monetary PolicyEcon Term Paper HelpInflation and DeflationFinance & InvestingTaxes, Policy, & PoliticsEconomic IndicatorsGlobalization & TradeEconomists - Info and BiosIssues In The NewssplitList(gEI('bc2').getElementsByTagName('ul')[0]);More from About.comWork Hard, Travel EasyThe best tips for business travelers.Dog CareGet tips on training and caring for dogs of all ages.48 Hours in VegasPlan a hot weekend in Sin City.Hotel AdviceThe must-stay hotels worldwide.Browse All About.comprepareTools();zCi();validateForms();Economicsvar h1=document.getElementsByTagName("h1")[0];if(h1.getElementsByTagName("a")[0].firstChild.nodeValue.length>28)h1.className="long";HomeEducationEconomicsMost PopularLatest ArticlesAdd to: iGoogleMy Yahoo!RSSAdvertising InfoNews & EventsWork at AboutSiteMapAll TopicsReprintsHelpUser AgreementEthics PolicyPatent Info.Privacy PolicyOur StoryBe a Guide©2008 About.com, a part of The New York Times Company.All rights reserved.![]() var tcdacmd="dt;da"; |
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