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Title: Social Sciences/Economics - David Smith's EconomicsUK The website of David Smith, Economics Editor of The Sunday Times. Containing among other items, an article archive, research section, UK policy watch, and a Q&A forum.
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David Smith's EconomicsUK.comfunction OpenComments (c) {window.open(c, 'comments', 'width=480,height=480,scrollbars=yes,status=yes,resize=yes');}function OpenTrackback (c) {window.open(c, 'trackback', 'width=480,height=480,scrollbars=yes,status=yes');}function alterNate(elm){ if (!elm.base) elm.base = elm.value if (elm.value == elm.base) elm.value = ""; else if (elm.value == "") elm.value = elm.base;} Sunday, November 30, 2008 Only spending cuts will get us out of this black hole Posted by David Smith at 09:00 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles  Like so many things in this crisis, the story of the public finances is one that makes everything that went before seem trivial. The long debate between the Treasury and independent experts came down to whether there was a "black hole" in the government's projections that would have to be filled by a few billion of tax rises.The context was Gordon Brown's fiscal rules which, as he put it in his final budget last year, were "the foundation of the strength of Britain's finances".In that same speech he scoffed at "a deficit equivalent of over £100 billion in a single year in the early 1990s" and looked forward to public borrowing trending down from £35 billion, its level then, to £24 billion, comfortably meeting his golden rule.I apologise if you wondered what the fuss was about. If Stephen Hawking has the definitive take on "black hole", I regret suggesting that what we were talking about was worthy of the name.For what Alistair Darling unveiled last week was the biggest, scariest black holein modern times. As I understand them, black holes are something you can never escape from. The chancellor's numbers suggest that description fits pretty well. (More...)   Shadow MPC votes to cut Bank rate to 2% Posted by David Smith at 08:59 AMCategory: Independently-submitted research In its latest E-mail poll (carried out in conjunction with the Sunday Times) the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted that UK Bank Rate should be reduced by a further 1 percentage point on 4th December. One SMPC member wanted a Bank Rate drop of 1½ percentage points, four members favoured a cut of 1 percentage point, two argued for a ½% percentage point reduction, and two wanted to hold Bank Rate at the 3% set on 6th November.These somewhat divergent recommendations would deliver a 1% reduction according to the voting procedures employed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The initial SMPC poll was carried out before the 24th November Pre-Budget Report. However, the poll was re-opened on Tuesday 25th November.Five SMPC members amended their texts - but no one changed their vote - in consequence. Several members of the IEA’s shadow committee were concerned about the size of the fiscal imbalances announced by Mr Darling. However, most SMPC members thought that the need to fight the meltdown in the financial sector and maintain a positive growth rate in the money holdings of the non-bank private sector had the greatest priority. (More...) Monday, November 24, 2008 The longest hangover Posted by David Smith at 06:00 PMCategory: Thoughts and responses  There are many stories in today’s pre-budget report but let me, as an initial reaction, concentrate on just two. The first is the deterioriation in the public finances and the second is the impact of Alistair Darling’s discretionary action, both in the short and medium-term. The most striking number in the pre-budget report is for next year’s public sector net borrowing. In March the Treasury expected £38 billion of borrowing for 2009-10; now it expects £118 billion, more than three times the level. An upward revision of £80 billion in the space of eight months is going some, even after everything that has happened in the past few months, and even taking into account the Treasury’s shaky forecasting record in this area.That number was, at least, in the market. The figures for future years will, if anything, have come as a bigger shock. After £77.6 billion this year and that £118 billion next, the numbers for the following three years are £105 billion, £87 billion and £70 billion respectively. Those who follow these things will have added up the numbers and worked out that, compared with what the Treasury expected in the March budget, borrowing over five years will be £295 billion higher. Just the addition to borrowing averages roughly twice as much as the government should be borrowing to meet its now “temporarily” abandoned fiscal rules. (More...) Sunday, November 23, 2008 Geithner and Bean Posted by David Smith at 03:00 PMCategory: Thoughts and responses Timothy Geithner has been confirmed as the next US Treasury secretary, anticipation of which helped Wall Street to a huge gain on Friday. The appointment of somebody with close knowledge of the markets and the banking system is regraded as a significant plus. This is a brief biography.Meanwhile, Charlie Bean, deputy governor of the Bank of England, said the causes of the current crisis reflected past monetary looseness in the world's big deficit country, America, but also policies in one of the world's biggest surplus countries, China. He maintained that there was very little the Bank could have done through monetary policy to constrain the UK housing boom. His speech is here. Darling risks drowning in a sea of red ink Posted by David Smith at 12:09 AMCategory: David Smith's other articles  Say what you like about Alistair Darling but his pre-budget reports are must-see events. A year ago he tried to put the ducks in place for the election that never was with eye-catching announcements, some stolen from the Tories. How long ago that seems. This time the run-up to the PBR has provoked intense debate about economic policy and elevated tomorrow’s statement to something extraordinarily important, economically and politically. On one side of the policy divide you have Gordon Brown, flush with something approaching international adulation, not entirely justified, because of Britain’s banking rescue. Last weekend’s G20 meeting in Washington gave him what he wanted. Not an agreement on a co-ordinated global package of tax cuts and increases in public spending but an acceptance that fiscal activism, where appropriate, made sense. Brown was keen on this outcome, because it gave him political cover and because fiscal activism is more effective if many countries do it, reducing the danger that measures adopted in Britain would simply benefit other countries’ exporters. (More...) Thursday, November 20, 2008 Retail sales slip, public borrowing slides further into the red Posted by David Smith at 11:00 AMCategory: Thoughts and responses Expectations had been for a very gloomy set of official retail sales figures but, in the event, the official numbers showed a drop of only 0.1%. Food sales were up by by 1%, non-food sales down by 1.1%, In the latest three months overall sales were flat, but up by 2.2% on a year earlier. Details here. The public borrowing figures, as expected, were poor. They are here.  (0) Wednesday, November 19, 2008 MPC voted 9-0 for 1.5 point cut Posted by David Smith at 02:30 PMCategory: Thoughts and responses The most dovish set of minutes in the monetary policy committee's history. Not only did the MPC vote 9-0 for this month's cut in Bank rate from 4.5% to 3% but it also contemplated a bigger reduction of more than two percentage points. Further rate cuts are on the way, as the minutes clearly signal. They are available here. Tuesday, November 18, 2008 Inflation begins its slide Posted by David Smith at 03:30 PMCategory: Thoughts and responses The drop in consumer price inflation was bigger than analysts had expected, with the headline rate falling from 5.2% to 4.5% and even the "core" rate, excluding food, drink, tobacco and energy, dropping from 2.2% to 1.9%. Mervyn King has some more open letters to write, but probably not that many, at least not until inflation drops below 1%. RPI inflation fell from 5% to 4.2% and may be heading into negative territory. More details here.   All the economics you need. Welcome to EconomicsUK, the personal website of David Smith, Economics Editor of The Sunday Times, London.The site, independent of the newspaper, aims to provide knowledge and stimulate debate on economics, for business people, students,economists and others. As well as my own articles and observations, it also includes material by other people and organisations, which is always welcome. Enjoy the site, and please take part in our forum.  Join in our Discussion Forum - Live Debate!David Smith's Latest Book: The Dragon and The Elephant - mini-siteJoin in our Discussion Forum - Live Debate!News ServiceConsultancy/AdvertisingUK Treasurythe Bank of EnglandTimes/Sunday TimesFinancial TimesIMFOECDEconomics ArenaThe Dismal ScientistFree Lunch (site)European Central BankUS Federal ReserveRoyal Economic SocietySociety of Business Economists Andrew SullivanNew EconomistAdam Smith InstituteStephen Pollard |
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The | website | of | David | Smith, | Economics | Editor | of | The | Sunday | Times. | Containing | among | other | items, | an | article | archive, | research | section, | UK | policy | watch, | and | a | Q&A | forum. |
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The website of David Smith, Economics Editor of The Sunday Times. Containing among other items, an article archive, research section, UK policy watch, and a Q&A forum.
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